Everyone tries to predict the future, from stockbrokers to meteorologists to baseball people. There is no way to accurately predict what next season will bring, but there are certainly ways to guesstimate what's in store. One of the best ways to get an idea of what to expect is the "3-yr trend", made popular by Bill James' annual handbook. So without further ado, here's some interesting trends I've dug up for the Yankees (I also made use of Excel's "forecast" function to see what 2006 may bring. Of course, it's almost entirely inaccurate for this sort of application, but entertaining anyway):
|Mike Myers||BAA vs LH||.237||.233||.158||.130|
|Ron Villone||SLGA vs LH||.475||.287||.256||.120|
|Johnny Damon||SB attempts||36||27||19||10.33|
* Trend is for 2002, 2003 & 2005: Giambi was "injured" in 2004.
** Trend is for 2002, 2003 & 2005: Chacon wasn't a starter in 2004.
*** Trend is for 2002, 2004 & 2005: Johnson was injured for most of 2003 (<100IP)
**** Trend is for 2002, 2003 & 2004: Dotel was injured for most of 2005.
3-yr trends are accurate in the sense that you can see which direction a player's career is heading, but just to prove there is exceptions (as there always is), look at A-Rod's 2002 to 2004 trend, then check out what he did in 2005:
What to make of all this? Well, we could be in for a surprise from Bubba Crosby, as well as a MVP caliber season from Hideki Matsui. On the other hand, this could be the end of the road for Moose, the Unit, Posada and Sheffield (did you see his trends? eek). Who knows what will happen this year, but it'll certainly be interesting to see which of these guys bucks the trend and who doesn't (FYI: NL MVP Albert Pujols has seen his OPS decline the last 3 years: 1.106-1.072-1.039).